Date: 3 June 2026 | Author: Hermes Research
Sources: Hot Chili ASX announcements (findata docs); Tintina Mines TMX filings; LME/COMEX spot pricing (Fortune, Trading Economics, Chemetal)
All figures from Hot Chili's PFS announcement (ASX: 27 March 2025) and May 2026 Corporate Presentation (findata docs).
| Parameter | PFS Base Case | PFS Spot Case | Current Spot (Jun 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | US$4.30/lb | US$5.30/lb | ~US$6.50/lb |
| Gold | US$2,280/oz | Not disclosed | ~US$4,490/oz |
| Silver | US$30/oz | — | ~US$76/oz 1 |
| Molybdenum | US$20/lb | — | ~US$27/lb 1 |
1 Ag: ~US$75.53/oz (Fortune, 1 Jun 2026); Mo: ~US$27/lb molybdenum oxide (Chemetal, Mar 2026). These are minor by-product credits (<5% of revenue combined) — pricing revisions have negligible impact on NPV estimates.
| Metric | PFS Base | PFS Spot Case | Current Spot (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-Tax NPV(8%) | US$1,200M | US$2,200M | US$3,500–4,000M |
| Post-Tax IRR | 19% | 30% | ~35–40% |
| LOM Free Cash Flow | US$3,860M | — | ~US$7,000M+ |
| Payback (from ops) | 4.5 years | — | ~2.5–3.0 yrs |
| Annual CuEq Production | 116 ktpa | — | — |
| C1 Cash Cost | US$1.38/lb | — | — |
| AISC | US$1.85/lb | — | — |
| Start-up CAPEX | US$1,270M | — | — |
From May 2026 Corp Pres: "For every US$0.10/lb increase in copper price above US$4.30/lb, NPV(8%) increases by ~US$100M"
→ At spot US$6.50/lb: incremental NPV = +US$2,200M from copper alone, plus gold uplift (US$4,490 vs US$2,280).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | A$2.02 | ASX |
| Basic shares | 177.6M | Appendix 5B (31 Mar 2026) |
| Options (A$1.50 strike) | 1.9M | Appendix 5B |
| Cash | A$35.2M (US$24.3M) | Appendix 5B |
| Debt | Nil | Appendix 5B |
| Market cap | A$359M (US$248M) | Calculated |
| Enterprise Value | US$224M | Calculated |
| Ratio | PFS Base | PFS Spot | Spot Est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/NPV (Costa Fuego only) | 0.19× | 0.10× | ~0.06× |
| P/NPV (incl. Huasco Water) | 0.10× | — | ~0.05× |
| EV/lb M&I CuEq contained | US$0.028 | ||
Separate PFS-stage asset within HCH — currently receiving zero market valuation:
| Stage | Post-Tax NPV(8%) | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 (seawater to Costa Fuego) | ~US$150M est. | Maritime concession granted, MOU executed |
| Stage 2&3 (desalinated, multi-user) | US$977M | PFS complete, 4,000+ L/s demand identified |
| Total Huasco Water | ~US$1,100M+ | At PFS confidence, same as Costa Fuego |
Tintina Mines (TSXV: TTS) — C$91M placement at C$0.68/share. Anchor vehicle: 50/50 Sumitomo Corporation — Gignac family (~C$48M). Franco-Nevada: ~C$14M. G Mining Services appointed EPCM contractor.
| Metric | Tintina (TTS) | Hot Chili (HCH) | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage | PEA | PFS (+ Huasco PFS) | ✓ HCH |
| Reserves | None | 502Mt Probable | ✓ HCH |
| Study by | SRK | Wood Australia | ✓ HCH |
| Scale (CuEq pa) | ~50 ktpa | 116 ktpa | ✓ 2.3× larger |
| CAPEX | US$1,283M | US$2,570M | Larger, more metal |
| AISC | Not disclosed | US$1.85/lb | ✓ HCH |
| Water | Pipeline | Concession + desal PFS | ✓ HCH |
| Strategic partner | Sumitomo+Gignac (25%) | Glencore (7.5%) | Both credible |
| EV (US$M) | ~95 | 224 | — |
| EV/lb CuEq | US$0.027 | US$0.028 | At parity |
| P/NPV (base) | 0.29× | 0.19× | HCH 35% cheaper |
| P/NPV (incl. Huasco) | N/A | 0.10× | HCH 65% cheaper |
| Tier | Partner | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | Mitsubishi Corporation | Chilean copper presence (Mantoverde). No flagship development project in coastal belt. Processing/trading arm. The Tintina-Sumitomo deal may spur competitive Japanese interest. |
| Tier 1 | Mitsui & Co. | Collahuasi + Los Pelambres stakeholder. Concentrate offtake capability. Diversified sogo shosha seeking copper growth. |
| Tier 1 | Glencore (expand stake) | Already 7.5% owner + offtaker for 60% of concentrate. Most obvious path: convert existing position into larger strategic stake at DFS stage. |
| Tier 2 | BHP | Chilean presence. Low-elevation seawater access aligns with strategy. May prefer larger scale. |
| Tier 2 | Rio Tinto | Copper expansion mode. La Verde porphyry cluster attractive. Scale may be sub-threshold. |
| Tier 2 | Chinese SOEs (Zijin, MMG) | Aggressive copper acquirers. Zijin has Chilean exposure appetite. Political risk constraint. |
G Mining Factor: The Gignac family's EPCM track record (on-time, on-budget mine delivery) is a key differentiator for Tintina. HCH could replicate by pairing a financial/offtake partner with a construction-capable EPCM contractor (Bechtel, Fluor, or G Mining).
| Milestone | Timing | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Costa Fuego PFS | Mar 2025 | ✓ Done |
| Huasco Water PFS | Mar 2025 | ✓ Done |
| NI 43-101 Technical Report | May 2025 | ✓ Done |
| La Verde drilling (maiden resource) | 2025–2026 | In progress |
| EIA-1 submission | 2025–2026 | Imminent |
| Definitive Feasibility Study | 2026–2027 | Pending |
| EIA-2 (incl. La Verde) | Post-DFS | Planned |
| Final Investment Decision | ~2027–2028 | — |
| Construction (2–3 years) | ~2028–2030 | — |
| First Production | ~2030 | "Before end of decade" |
Progressive de-risking multiples applied to Costa Fuego PFS base case NPV (US$1.2B):
| Stage | Year | P/NPV | Implied EV | Price (A$) | vs A$2.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 2026 | 0.10× | US$224M | A$2.02 | — |
| DFS + EIA submitted | 2027 | 0.20–0.25× | US$460–575M | A$3.40–4.40 | +70–120% |
| EIA approved + FID | 2028 | 0.35–0.45× | US$805–1,035M | A$6.20–8.00 | +210–300% |
| Construction 50% | 2029 | 0.50–0.65× | US$1,150–1,495M | A$8.90–11.60 | +340–475% |
| First Production | 2030 | 0.70–0.85× | US$1,610–1,955M | A$12.50–15.20 | +520–650% |
Note: Base case PFS price deck. Adding Huasco Water (+US$1.1B) and La Verde would increase targets. At spot prices (NPV ~US$3.5–4.0B), multiply all outcomes by ~3×.
HCH is materially undervalued. The Tintina-Sumitomo transaction benchmarks Chilean coastal copper-gold projects at 0.29× P/NPV for PEA-stage. HCH at PFS — with reserves, known AISC, Glencore offtake, and a separate water infrastructure asset — trades at 0.10–0.19×.
Base case (2027 DFS): A$3.40–4.40 — if HCH re-rates to just 0.20–0.25× P/NPV, still below Tintina's multiple despite superior stage.
Spot scenario: At US$6.50 Cu and US$4,490 Au, HCH at Tintina's 0.29× P/NPV would be A$10+.
M&A endgame: Glencore + EPCM + streaming partner template. At 0.60–0.80× spot NPV takeout: A$15–25/share.
The Tintina deal validates the district. HCH is the largest, most advanced independent developer in it.